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January 20, 2016

The latest NBC/WSJ Presdential Election Poll

Numbers from the latest Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies paid for by NBC and Wall Street Journal. I never like the way any press or media digest and spit out the results of surveys, so I went to the source and did some of own digestion and spitting, so maybe you want to clean up afterward.

800 registered voters; 400 Republican primary voters plus 400 Democratic primary voters.

"Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures, groups and organizations, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so."

PosNeg
Barack Obama4742
Bill Clinton4536
Hillary Clinton4049
Bernie Sanders3831
George W. Bush3743
George W. Bush3743
Marco Rubio3129
Ted Cruz3135
Ben Carson3035
Donald Trump2958
Chris Christie2436
Jeb Bush1946


Asked of those who would vote in the Democratic primary: "If the next Democratic primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates would you favor?"

Clinton59
Sanders34
O'Malley2


Voters who said they would vote in the Democratic primary were asked whether they perceive the following individuals as very liberal, liberal, moderate, conservative or very conservative. I'll just list the top one for each.

Hillary ClintonModerate48
SandersVery Liberal41
ObamaModerate44
Bill ClintonModerate48


Again, the following question was limited to those who said they would vote in the Democratic primary. "...would you prefer a president that is more liberal or less liberal, or about the same as..." the following individuals.

ObamaAbout the same56
Bill ClintonAbout the same55

No earth shaking surprise there. The majority of Democrats like Obama and Bill Clinton.


Republican primary voters were asked if they could see themselves supporting each of the following individuals for the Republican nomination. I'm just going to list the Yeses.

Cruz71
Rubio67
Trump65
Carson60
Christie48
Fiorina45
Jeb Bush42
Huckabee36
Paul32
Kasich28
Santorum26

But as to which candidate they want to get the Republican nomination, Trump comes out on the top when they ask the question a few different ways. BUT, if they eliminate all the candidates other than Cruz and Trump, Cruz comes out on top with 51%, Trump gets 43%. Between Rubio and Trump the Republican primary voters prefer Trump at 52%, Rubio at 45%.


How Republican primary voters view the following individuals on the very liberal to very conservative scale.

TrumpModerate35
Jeb BushModerate44
CruzVery Conservative47
George W. BushModerate41


Republican primary voters were asked "Would you prefer a president that is more conservative or less conservative, or about the same as George W. Bush?" "About the same" got 43%. Again, the earth does not tremble.


And now we get down to the Presidential election.

Trump/Clinton41/51
Rubio/Clinton46/47
Cruz/Clinton45/49
Trump/Sanders39/54

Sanders has been correct that according to the polls he could defeat the likely Republican candidate better than Clinton.


"Has what you have seen, read, or heard so far during the Republican [or Democratic] presidential nominating process made you feel more favorable or less favorable toward the Republican [or Democratic] Party?" The majorities in each party both said it has had no impact on how they feel about their own party. But the results from all registered voters comes out differently. These are the top categories.

Republican PartyLess Favorable42
Democratic PartyNo Impact54


Those who will vote in the Republican primary still strongly support "the traditional definition of marriage as being between one man and one woman" (65%) and the NRA (62%). 33% say they are strong supporters of the Tea Party.

They gave more choices to those who said they would vote in the Democratic primary! There is strong support for immediate action to address climate change (67%), 62% strongly consider themselves environmentalists, 61% strongly support the gay rights movement, 54% are strong supporters of unions, and 50% are strong supporters of Black Lives Matter. Only 26% are strong supporters of "the traditional definition of marriage as being between one man and one woman" and 3% are strong supporters of the Tea Party!


11% of all surveyed did NOT vote in the Presidential election of 2012; 33% did not vote in the 2014 Congressional election. Those are pretty big numbers that could shift almost all of the results of the survey.


29% of those surveyed said they were employed in the "Professional/Managerial" category; only 5% were stay at home parents; 25% said they were retired. Those do not look like representative figures. Those seem to be people who might have the time to answer a lengthy survey. Other categories were white collar (17%), blue collar (17%), student (2%), unemployed (3% - "thanks Obama"), and 2% who are not sure if they are currently employed.

20% say their highest education level was a high school diploma, 26% have a four-year college degree. Only 2% say they dropped out of high school.

45% of those surveyed said they support or lean towards the Democratic party. 39% said Republican. Liberal 26%, moderate 37%, conservative 34%.

79% of those surveyed live in "non-union households."

24% never attend religious services; 34% say they attend weekly.

Household income: under $50,000 36%; $50,000-$100,000 32%; more than $100,000 27%.

Filed under Politics | permalink | January 20, 2016 at 07:26 PM

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